Dems win state legislatures!

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Wednesday November 03, 2004 · 1:36 AM PST

2004/11/03 · 01:36

OK, it's not much in the grand scheme of things, but the Democrats have been steadily ceding ground for a while in the state legislatures, so I guess this is a silver lining at least.

Democrats gained control of the Oregon Senate tonight. The chamber was tied 15-15 going into the election. Democrats now have an 18-12 lead in the chamber. So far, 10 chambers have switched control, with a few chambers still hanging in the balance. Democrats can claim taking the Washington Senate, North Carolina House, Colorado House, Colorado Senate and the Vermont House. Republicans have picked up the Georgia House, Tennessee Senate, Indiana House and Oklahoma House.

So, I guess we lost a handful of Southern chambers that were Dixiecrat for a long time anyhow (Indiana might as well be in the Deep South), but we made some precious gains overall. We now have full control of the legislatures in Washington, Oregon, North Carolina, Colorado, and Vermont. And that's a good thing! Gotta rebuild the party somewhere.. Read More

Nader Ballot News Roundup: Spoiler Squared!

GoKeever

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Friday October 29, 2004 · 2:08 PM PDT

2004/10/29 · 14:08

The final Nader ballot news roundup has finally arrived, and without a moment to spare! Since I've kept procrastinating for some reason or another, this wrap up edition basically summarizes all of the October activity, some of which of course will be 'old news' by now. Anyway, here we go!

Note that frivolous lawsuits are still pending in Illinois and Hawai'i state courts, but that's no longer noted on the map since they won't make any difference to the ballot at this late date.

STATE-BY-STATE BALLOT STATUS
Nader Off Ballot
Arizona	California	Georgia	Hawaii!
Idaho	Illinois!	Indiana	Massachusetts
Missouri	North Carolina	Ohio	Oklahoma
Oregon	Pennsylvania	Texas	Virginia
Nader On Ballot
Alabama	Alaska	Arkansas	Colorado
Connecticut	Delaware	Dist. of Columbia	Florida
Iowa	Kansas	Kentucky	Louisiana
Maine	Maryland	Michigan	Mississippi
Minnesota	Montana	Nebraska	Nevada
New Hampshire	New Jersey	New Mexico	New York
North Dakota	Rhode Island	South Carolina	South Dakota
Tennessee	Utah	Vermont	Washington
West Virginia	Wisconsin	Wyoming

! frivolous Nader lawsuits pending

GoKeever

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Wednesday October 27, 2004 · 2:45 PM PDT

2004/10/27 · 14:45

Are you a 'likely voter'?

The Gallup Poll asks these seven questions to determine if a respondent fits in the 'likely voter' category. Take our test to see if you are a 'likely voter'.

Check out the interactive test at the link and find out if you would qualify to vote in Gallup world!
Read More

2 big Florida endorsements!

GoKeever

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Saturday October 23, 2004 · 10:45 AM PDT

2004/10/23 · 10:45

It's an open question how much of a difference endorsements can make, especially for president, but the farther downballot you go the more crucial they can be in a close race. So, I wanted to point these slightly surprising endorsements of Democratic House race challengers out since I haven't seen any other mention of them.

Before all that, let me draw some attention to this very positive diary: Early turnout in FL is very encouraging. So, with Sunshine State Democrats energized and good buzz and a bit of luck mingled with a healthy dose of skill, maybe we'll be ousting these two wingnuts (including Jeb! flunky Cruella). Read More

Mason Dixon polls IA, MI, OR, PA, WI,

GoKeever

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Thursday October 21, 2004 · 4:35 PM PDT

2004/10/21 · 16:35

I'll be very surprised if this is the first diary on this, but since I can't find any mention of the actual Mason-Dixon polls. These were taken Oct 15-18.

New Knight Ridder/MSNBC Poll Shows Kerry Leads in Michigan, Oregon and Pennsylvania

IOWA
Bush: 49%
Kerry: 43%

MICHIGAN
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 46%

OREGON
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 46%

PENNSYLVANIA
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 45%

WISCONSIN
Kerry: 45%
Bush: 45%

Not bad considering M-D usually tilts Republican. The Iowa numbers are the only worrisome ones I think. Especially considering Bush's dis-approval ratings (under the fold). Read More

Sinclair investor protests!

GoKeever

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Tuesday October 19, 2004 · 12:01 PM PDT

2004/10/19 · 12:01

Glickenhaus & Co., a Wall Street firm with clients who own about 6,100 shares of Sinclair stock has sent a protest letter to Sinclair Chief Executive David Smith implicitly warning of dire consequences (for Sinclair) if they do not permit John Kerry equal time to respond to their slanderous propaganda. Here's the CBS MarketWatch section about the letter:

Glickenhaus general partner Jim Glickenhaus, whose firm has about $1 billion in assets under management, told CBS MarketWatch he has a simple request.

"Let there be a rebuttal, so no one can accuse you of taking a position," he said.

"Simply, as a fiduciary matter, we have to protect our shareholders," Glickenhaus said. "This has nothing to do with politics."

"Management is not acting in the interest of shareholders," he said. "By showing something that's clearly propaganda, they are damaging the network."

Glickenhaus said he was worried that "advertisers have already pulled ads."

A call placed to the office of Sinclair's Smith seeking comment on Glickenhaus' actions wasn't returned.

"If they (have) a bias, mainstream people are not going to want to advertise," Glickenhaus said.

"They could lose their licenses," Glickenhaus said. "They're going to incur all sorts of challenges to their licenses."

Couldn't happen to a better group of fascist wingnuts. Read More

i just voted - great news!

GoKeever

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Tuesday October 19, 2004 · 10:13 AM PDT

2004/10/19 · 10:13

Hi everyone. So, early voting just started here today in my western North Carolina county (we must be the last one) and of course I headed out to be there promptly by 11:00am when the polls open. I was pretty surprised by the huge turnout!

When I got there (at the local library) the parking lot was completely full and there were cars edging around trying to find a place to park on the curb. I decided to go for a spin around the block and come back prepared to jockey for an opening, and by the time I made it back (I ended up stopping at the store for some smokes) they'd opened up another lot next door for overflow, and that had mostly filled up too. Read More

Senate: Newspaper Endorsements!

GoKeever

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Sunday October 17, 2004 · 2:13 PM PDT

2004/10/17 · 14:13

I've put together a list of what newspaper endorsements for competitive senate races I've been able to track down. There weren't any yet (that I could find) for Alaska and Oklahoma. Most dailies haven't endorsed yet, with the exception of Colorado where Salazar has just about swept.

I'll post updated lists next weekend and right before the election. Please post if I've missed any.

PS. If the editorial boards are any sign, Salazar is gonna romp! Read More

Kerry widens Zogby lead!

GoKeever

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Monday October 11, 2004 · 4:42 AM PDT

2004/10/11 · 04:42

On Saturday morning, Kerry seized the lead in Zogby's tracking poll (not the interactive version), at that point conducted entirely before the Friday debate. With two days of polling since the 'town hall' meeting, Kerry now holds a 47-44 percent lead over Bush!

Kerry Opens Three-Point Lead on Bush

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic challenger John Kerry expanded his slight lead over President Bush to three points in a tight race for the White House, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Monday.

The Massachusetts senator held a 47-44 percent lead over Bush in the latest three-day tracking poll, up two points from Sunday. Bush's support dropped one point and Kerry's support rose one point in the new poll.

The close race turns up the pressure for Wednesday's final debate in Tempe, Arizona, when the White House rivals will have another chance to make their case to voters on domestic issues.

The poll found six percent of likely voters are still undecided about the race with barely more than three weeks to go until the Nov. 2 election, and 16 percent of the voters who identify themselves as independents are undecided.

Bush made small gains among young voters and Kerry picked up strength among women voters ahead of the debate -- the final chance for both candidates to speak directly to an audience of millions of voters.

"Wednesday's debate is vital because many sub-groups remain close and because so many independents have yet to make up their minds," pollster John Zogby said.

The poll of 1,214 likely voters was taken Friday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.

And, let's remember The Big Five-Oh incumbent loser rule! Read More

Kerry takes Zogby lead!

GoKeever

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Saturday October 09, 2004 · 4:36 AM PDT

2004/10/09 · 04:36

Kerry seizes the lead in the Zogby tracking poll (the 'regular' one, not the online interactive version, where Big John leads by an even wider margin).

Kerry Takes Slight One-Point Lead Over Bush

ST. LOUIS (Reuters) - Democratic challenger John Kerry moved into a slight one-point lead over President Bush in a tight White House race, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released Saturday.

Kerry pulled ahead of Bush 46-45 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, which concluded before the start of Friday night's televised debate between the two contenders in St. Louis, Missouri.

The two had been in a statistical dead heat in the previous poll, with Bush leading by less than one percentage point.

The slight advantage for the Massachusetts senator, well within the poll's margin of error, was helped by continued improvement in his standing with his core Democratic supporters.

Kerry earned support from 83 percent of Democrats, 88 percent of blacks, 79 percent of Jews and 65 percent of single voters. Kerry led by a 2-to-1 margin in union households.

"This is good evidence that Kerry is consolidating his base," pollster John Zogby said.

Bush had support of 87 percent of Republicans, 51 percent of investors and 53 percent of married voters, while the two candidates were locked in dead heat among Catholics and households with armed forces members.

And, let's remember The Big Five-Oh incumbent loser rule!

Swift Boat Veterans for Ralphie!

GoKeever

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Thursday October 07, 2004 · 5:57 AM PDT

2004/10/07 · 05:57

Just when you thought St. Ralph couldn't descend any further into the depths of rank hypocrisy, the Washington Post reveals this.

Swift Boat Donors Float Nader Some Money

Swift Boat Veterans for Nader? A handful of donors to the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, an organization that has run controversial ads attacking Democrat John F. Kerry, have also given money to independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader.

...cut...

The Nader camp rejected suggestions that it was hypocritical of him to accept the money -- and said the donations were evidence of its candidate's ability to appeal to voters from across the political spectrum.

Uh huh. Meanwhile, Nader rips on Howard Dean. Read More

Nader Ballot News Roundup: 269 or Bust!

GoKeever

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Friday September 24, 2004 · 12:01 PM PDT

2004/09/24 · 12:01

Welcome to the fifth overdue installment of what has been my fortnightly Nader Ballot News Roundup. First off, I want to express my enormous appreciation to the folks at StopNader.com who are now featuring my roundup on their homepage -- I always wondered how I'd get my 15 minutes! =) Please check them out and give a hand with their inspiring mission if at all possible.

The past month has marked the peak of the ballot access season, and that is accordingly reflected by the hugest update yet. With the fine states of Minnesota and Vermont the final states checking in last week, my goal is to post a weekly roundup as the process winds down into early October. Meanwhile, the plan is to have the most recent entry for each state kept up at StopNader for the duration.

So, moving right along!

I've made what should be the final modification to my criteria following St. Ralph's acceptance of the Reform Party nomination from Shawn O'Hara, outspoken defender of Samuel Bowers, former Imperial Wizard of the KKK in Mississippi. I will no longer distinguish between states where Nader is seeking ballot access via a qualified, rightwing Reform Party rather than via his Republican orchestrated petition drives. States are counted for Nader only if he's been formally certified, regardless of pending challenges marked by asterisks. Otherwise, states with Nader filings are indicated irrespective of the method or status. Nader is considered off the ballot if he has officially failed to meet petition requirements. Note that question marks appear wherever the current status of possible challenges remains unclear.

STATE-BY-STATE BALLOT STATUS
Nader Off Ballot
Arizona	Arkansas!	California	Georgia	Idaho!
Illinois!	Indiana	Massachusetts	Missouri	New Mexico!
N. Carolina!	Oklahoma	Oregon!	Texas!	Virginia?
Nader On Ballot
Alabama	Alaska	Colorado?	Connecticut	Delaware
D.C.	Florida	Iowa	Kansas	Kentucky
Minnesota	Montana	Nebraska	Nevada	New Jersey
North Dakota	Ohio#	S. Carolina	South Dakota	Tennessee
Utah	Washington?	West Virginia	Wisconsin#	Wyoming

! frivolous Nader lawsuits pending

# appropriate challenges pending

? possible challenge/lawsuit pending

As developments warrant, it's very possible some states will move from their current designation to the other.

With a staunchly GOP court's baseless rescue of Nader from his abject failure in Michigan and a contemptible intervention by Jeb Bush's minions in Florida, the well-deserved humiliation of St. Ralph failing to qualify for ballots totalling 269 electoral votes hangs in the balance of ongoing reviews in just a few states, most notably Ohio and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, assuming he doesn't manage to improperly maneuver onto any more ballots from which he's been duly disqualified, the following is the most Ralphie could presently hope for.

Current Nader Maximum

Number of States: 35

Electoral Votes: 312

Popular Vote: 1.66%

The maximum popular vote percentage is estimated by taking the surely remorseful 2.73% that voted for Ralph Nader in 2000 and reducing them by the number of votes received in states where he's thus far failed to qualify in 2004. The actual Nov 2 vote will almost surely be less.

So, without further ado, let's plunge right in to the state-by-state situation report breakdown! Read More

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